Calling it Now...

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series...

And the Emmy goes to...

Eric Stonestreet, as Cameron Tucker on Modern Family!

It's becoming clearer with every episode that Stonestreet is the standout and emotional center of the ensemble-driven Modern Family. The question is, how many members of this funky bunch will be honored by the Academy?

Aside from Stonestreet, I'd say that Sofía Vergara ("Gloria") is a shoo-in for a Supporting Actress nomination, while Ty Burrell ("Phil") is likely to join his costar Stonestreet in the Supporting Actor field. Ed O'Neil ("Jay") has a fair shot at either a Lead or Supporting Actor nod, depending on how he is campaigned I'm betting they'll put him as Lead because he's the most seasoned cast memeber, he receives top billing, and ABC will want to avoid internal competition with Stonestreet and Burrell. Julie Bowen ("Claire") is a slightly longer shot for a Lead or Supporting Actress nomination. She's certainly not the show's Lead Actress, but given the choice between the two, Vergara makes more sense as Supporting. The only headlining adult I don't see in the awards mix is Jesse Tyler Ferguson as "Mitchell." He'll have to step up his game and the writing team will have to make his character more likable to win over any voters.

The kids won't see any Emmy glory this year, but I'd keep my eye on Rico Rodriguez ("Manny") and especially Ariel Winter ("Alex") for future seasons. The girl has spunk!

I'd be surprised if Modern Family doesn't pick up at least two Guest-Star nods on top of the established categories. Shelley Long is nearly a lock for playing Jay's ex-wife "DeDe." Elizabeth Banks could score one as Mitchell and Cameron's former bestie "Sal," but I think she's got a better shot at a Guest Actress nod for her work on 30 Rock. Fred Willard has a good shot for playing Phil's father simply due to his TV-star power and industry respect. Benjamin Bratt has a very good shot as Manny's real father "Javier." Minnie Driver is an extremely likely candidate as Claire's friend "Valerie." Judy Greer's potential is just a smidgen less than Driver's as Phil's ex-girlfriend and new-found cyber-stalker "Denise." The remaining six episodes will also feature appearances by Justin Kirk and Kevin Bacon. And for May sweeps, who knows who else might show up? Reportedly, season two may or may not feature the likes of Delta Burke, Sophia Loren, and Gabby Sidibe (!).

So will Modern Family be able to triumph over Glee at the Emmys this year? Almost definitely. Yes, I know that Glee won the Golden Globe and the SAG ensemble award, but Emmy is generally less enthralled by zeitgeist or youthful exuberance of any kind. She likes to play it safe as much as possible-- and while it carries a very progressive message at its center, Modern Family stays much closer to the typical, albeit very sharp, TV comedy formula. It may seem slightly less trendy than Glee's colorful cast and pop covers, but "trendy" doesn't translate as well at the Emmys. That's why Jessica Lange won for Grey Gardens over Drew Barrymore, just as Drew went on to snag the Globe and SAG.

At the very least, with all the new and strong additions to the TV Comedy world this season, maybe Two and Half Men will be left in the dust at last. AT LAST!

The Most Talented Man on the Planet?

There's little in this world I love more than television, theme songs, quality amateur covers, mash-ups, medleys, guys who can harmonize with themselves, and Charles in Charge.

So could this be the most talented person in the entire world? Possibly.

Come on! That was 22 TV theme songs in under seven minutes! The most talented person on YouTube at least?

Do Spies Come with that Shake?

I was going to work on my best of 2009 awards-- The Golden Apples *pokes the button above*-- but I decided to exercise a bit instead. So while I've been riding my trusty stationary bike and whipping the cardiovasculars back into shape, I've been re-watching the first season of my favorite television show of pretty much all time-- the show that inspired me to dabble further into the world of film and tv-- and that show is a show called Alias.

If you don't remember, Alias ran on ABC for five seasons and starred Jennifer Garner as a butt-kicking secret agent working for the CIA and, initially, undercover at another secret organization as a "double agent." Oh, how I loved Alias back in the day! For serious, I was obsessed. Even when the show took a nosedive in quality in its third season and spent three years cycling through formats, plots, characters, and programming slots, I was a devout fan and follower just the same.

Working my way through the first season this time (the fifth, sixth go-round, maybe?), having learned much more about the filmmaking process and having experienced much more of the filmmaking spectrum, I am at once both slightly disenchanted and all the more enthralled. Not everything works as seamlessly as I remembered, and certain patterns in the storytelling emerged much more quickly this time-- but the intricacy of the technical work, the layered narratives with strong emotions, the sheer dedication of the cast and crew: it's a remarkable, wholly cinematic achievement that makes me yearn for better TV.

But back to the cast and crew. Creator and frequent writer-director J.J. Abrams would abandon his show after its sophomore season (traitor!) to focus on his next project: a little something that would become the ballyhooed phenomenon known as Lost. What most don't know and would probably be shocked to discover is that J.J.'s previous TV outing-- Alias itself-- was much smarter, tighter, and more involving than anything that would be featured on Lost.

When Abrams left Alias, the show went down the tubes, and then the same thing happened to Lost sometime between its second and third seasons. And then he gave an initial creative push to Fringe before going on his way. Abrams would move on up to the big screen to direct Tom Cruise in the better-than-expected Mission Impossible III and, just last year, the super successful Star Trek franchise reboot. J.J. has a new show headed to NBC this fall about espoused spies (shades of Alias, perhaps? or Mr. and Mrs. Smith?) called Undercovers. I'll be there.

Oh, and did you know that Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino (Up) provided the orchestral-techno fusion score for Alias? The music in Alias plays such a pivotal role in generating the tension, the drama, the excitement-- and Giacchino offers such a stylish palette with his music. Oscar-worthy work in a television series. But the Academy-level achievements don't stop there. Michael Bonvillain's rich, perceptive cinematography. Scott Chambliss' extremely convincing and creative production design, Laura Goldsmith's unforgettable costume creations. And, lest we forget, the iconic hair and makeup work by Michael Reitz (it all goes back to the bright red wig!).

And it all goes back to the woman in the wig: Jennifer Garner herself. It's a downright tragedy that she never won an Emmy for playing Sydney Bristow, Alias' central female espionage extraordinaire. She did manage a Golden Globe win for the show's first season and a SAG award during its fourth, but she never took home Oscar's winged dysfunctional half-sister statue.

At any rate, watching Garner again, more carefully this time and with an arsenal of prolific performances in my memory bank, has been absolutely fascinating. She is so engaged in her portrayal, so assertive and confident in the execution of her craft, that she manages to shoulder the considerable weight of the series' plot twists, story arcs, and spy genre conceits with grace and conviction. She is not a relaxed or effortless performer, but there is an undeniable power to her acting prowess. With her move into movies, and given the right role, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if she one day soon deservedly found herself in the Oscar mix (she almost did back in 2007 for Juno).

Not to mention the gal knows how to tell a story. Or wait... what is this? Is she drunk or something? Am I drunk or something?

Did that really just happen?

Anywaytoomuchinfohoosiers, if you haven't seen Alias yet from its inspired beginnings, I would highly, highly recommend taking the first season for a spin. And then the second (you'll be hooked, I promise). And maybe even the flawed though frequently fascinating third, fourth, and fifth seasons.

At the very least, have a look at the pilot episode (the very first episode, called Truth Be Told) for a powerful reminder-- a wake-up-call, perhaps-- of what the television medium is capable of achieving in its finest form. That's a form I'd wager we haven't seen in quite some time.

Did I mention that Quentin Tarantino guest stars in two episodes of the first season in all his reckless, mouthy bad-assery? Well I just did. And yes, they got him to guest star without either a coinciding writing or directing credit-- so you know this is the real good stuff... and I suddenly wonder where he got the inspiration for his Kill Bill series. Now go add Alias to your Netflix queue, or whatever it is you kids are doing these days!

PS - Stay tuned for my Golden Apple awards! I'll have them up and running as soon as I stop getting sidetracked by stuff like this. Yes, yes. Any day now, then...

Year-in-Advance Predictions 2009: The Results

I originally posted these predictions the day after the Oscars ceremony in 2009. Let's see how things panned out over the course of a year and change...

Best Picture
THE HUMAN FACTOR
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
SHUTTER ISLAND
THE TREE OF LIFE

0/5. The Lovely Bones didn't even come close to being nominated, let alone winning. Oh, letdown, letdown, letdown. Meanwhile, Nine came a little bit closer even if it took a harsher beating by the critical community. One title change--The Human Factor became Invictus--also turned out to be an under-performer. The remaining two films didn't make it to theaters in 2009 at all. Shutter Island is turning into a very unlikely Oscar contender (though with ten slots, you never know). Might The Tree of Life find new life on the Oscar circuit later this year? Considering the rocky production/development of the film, your guess is as good as mine. Then again, it's a Terence Malick film. Then again, it's a Terrence Malick film...

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
John Hilcoat, The Road
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

0/5. Struck out again. Clint had some traction early on, but Invictus didn't have legs. The Road was considered a disappointment (not by me!), and recognition eluded John Hilcoat. The Lovely Bones bombed, and Peter Jackson went down with the ship. And once again, directors from two films were not released last year. Scorsese might prove a weak contender-- though a contender nonetheless-- in the 2010 Oscar rally, while Malick is a big fat question mark.

Best Actor
Paul Bettany, Creation
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

2/5. Morgan Freeman is a definite get, and I'm giving myself credit for Christopher Plummer, too (he was nominated for the predicted performance... so what if it's in the supporting category?). Otherwise, Paul Bettany drew hesitant praise for the poorly received Creation, Daniel Day-Lewis disappointed in Nine, and Viggo Mortensen got the raves and the write-ups but not the important pre-cursor nods. The biggest snub of the season, too, I think.

Best Actress
Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
Jennifer Connelly, Creation
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Rachel Weisz, Agora

1/5. Oh Meryl, how you never disappoint us! As for the others... Halle Berry is still holding out on her potential comeback without a release date for Frankie and Alice. Connelly got some hesitant praise for Creation (as did her hubby Paul Bettany), but maybe it's time she branched out from the role of long-suffering spouse. Amelia and Hilary Swank went down in flames. Rachel Weisz earned some accolades for Agora but nothing that indicates Oscar potential-- while the film itself was pushed into 2010.

Best Supporting Actor
Jackie Earle Haley, Shutter Island
Ben Kingsley, Shutter Island
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Bill Nighy, 1939
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

1/5. Tucci was sole part of The Lovely Bones that managed to break into the Oscar mix-- if only because expectations were so astronomical from the word go. Haley and Kingsley, and Shutter Island, were pushed into early 2010 and gave strong performances. I wouldn't count Haley out of this year's Oscar race just yet. Tobey courted his way to a Golden Globe nod (in the leading category) but nothing more. Finally, 1939-- now Glorious 39--was deemed non-spectacular, Nighy included, and expectations are quite low for its eventual US national release.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Mo'Nique, Push
Miranda Richardson, The Young Victoria
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

2/5. Cruz, like Tucci, had a big enough push early on to make the final cut, while Mo'Nique was a lock from the very first Sundance screening (why didn't I put her down for the win??). Patty Clarkson got raves, but Whatever Works was much too stale. Richardson was drowned out by the fancy sets and costumes of The Young Victoria. And Susan Sarandon left everyone mighty confused in The Lovely Bones.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Whatever Works
Guillermo Arriaga, The Burning Plain
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Stephen Poliakoff, 1939

0/5. Just... no. Whatever Works was stuck in the 70s. For all its layers, The Burning Plain had little depth. Bright Star was too sophisticated for Oscar or just about everyone else (yeah, let's go with that). The Tree of Life... maybe next year? And Inglourious 1939 reportedly isn't anything special.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, & Philippa Boyens, The Lovely Bones
Laeta Kalogridis, Shutter Island
Damien Paul, Push
Anthony Peckham, The Human Factor
Joe Penhall, The Road

1/5. Aww, how cute! I used Geoffrey Fletcher's real name! Still a bit stunned that he won this one. The others? Lovely Bones blah blah fail fail. Shutter Island blah blah new year not good enough. The Invictus Factor blah blah underwhelmed. The Road blah blah snubbed snubbed.

Animated Film
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog
Up

3/3 (3/5). Boy did I ever nail this one! Because let's be honest: were there only three nominees this year, they would have been these three, right? Give or take a Fantastic Fox. But I'm surely not psychic enough to have seen the category expansion.

Film Editing
Green Zone
The Human Factor
Nine
Shutter Island
The Tree of Life

0/5. Green Zone: new year, new fail (despite the denial of the liberal die-hards). Invictus: not so close, not so cigar. Nine: only the critical slaying it received would have been able to stop it-- and it did. Shutter Island: new year, still in contention? Tree of Life?? I sure hope so!

Cinematography
Amelia
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Road
Shutter Island

0/5. Nine came oh-so-close. Amelia and Bones went nyeer-splat. The Road was ignored (and not all that loved). Shutter Island could still be in it this year... maybe... probably not.

Art Direction
Agora
Amelia
Nine
The Road
The Young Victoria

2/5. Same stories as before for the ones that didn't make it. Nine earned a puzzling nod, and The Young Victoria was pretty much preordained, no?

Costume Design
Agora
Amelia
Creation
Nine
The Young Victoria

2/5. See category above.

Make-up
Nine
The Road
The Wolf Man

0/3. Not so much makeup in Nine (Penny Cruz's role-playing seductress not included). Snubbub for The Road. The Wolf Man bumped into the next year.

Sound Editing
Avatar
Green Zone
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Watchmen

2/5. How did Avatar lose this one, seriously? Transformers probably came close, but campaigned harder for a sound mixing nod. No bananas for the Watchmen, and a new year for the Green Zone.

Sound Mixing
Amelia
Avatar
Green Zone
Nine
Watchmen

1/5. Avatar lost this one too? Really? Really? Amelia = kaboom. Green Zone = pttttthhhh. Nine = yaawwwn. Watchmen = hmph.

Original Score
Avatar
The Lovely Bones
The Road
Shutter Island
The Tree of Life

1/5. New category, same stories for the unfulfilled prophecies.

Visual Effects
Avatar
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Watchmen

1/3. I picked the winner! Go me? The others didn't have the overall chops required to make the cut.

So how did I do?

I correctly guessed 19 nominations! Out of 84 contenders... 91 if you count the expanded Best Picture and Animated Feature categories. So that's a 23%! Or a 21% if you count the expanded categories. How's that for blind luck?

Adam Tackles the Classics: The Shawshank Redemption

If one were to consider me, Adam M., some legitimate authority on film, it would be a bit of a joke. I admit it. I don't deny it. I have a fair grasp on contemporary cinema-- if not a bit too mainstream still-- but I am a big, fat fail when it comes to the classics. Anything made before the year 2000-- I haven't even begun to see the most important slices of film history. So what exactly am I waiting for?

Good question! Let's get started! I have a list that I plan to work my way through, and I hope to write a little bit about each film along the way. Some films will be cinematic benchmarks, some will be populist favorites. By the end of this movie-watching trek, however, I don't ever want to answer a shameful "no" again to whether or not I've seen a given obvious or important film.

First up, by suggestion of a close friend...

The Shawshank Redemption

The facts:

• Release date: September 23, 1994
• Directed by: Frank Darabont
• Written by: Frank Darabont, based on the short story "Rita Hayworth and Shawshank Redemption" by Stephen King
• Starring: Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman
• Below the line: Music by Thomas Newman, Cinematography by Roger Deakins
• Box office: $28 million

Why is it a classic?

• The highest-rated film on IMDB (the all-time favorite amongst IMDB users)
• Seven Oscar nominations, including Best Picture
• A critical and public success that has only strengthened with time
• One of the most successful video releases, and a cable TV movie staple
• Everyone knows the title, even if they haven't seen the movie
• Secured Morgan Freeman the crown for having the most awesome voice ever
• Family Guy parodied it

Did you know...?

Tom Hanks turned down the part of Andy Dufresne so that he could star in Forrest Gump. Audiences and Oscar (and pretty much everyone else) backed him up with this decision. Me? Not so much...

Let's talk about...

Confidence. This movie takes strong, confident components from every slice of the filmmaking spectrum and puts them together with confidence. The film doesn't cast a broad net with the hope of invoking some sort of response from someone. It's focused, it knows exactly what it wants to say, and it sets out to prove its point with both precision and gusto.

What's good?

It's Forrest Gump-- done properly!

Everything I've grown to resent about Hollywood: the manipulated narrative, the single-sided characters, the lightly-concealed emotions, the omniscient voice-over. But it's made with such consideration, such style, and such soulful commitment, that even with its calculations, it seldom registers as anything less than completely earnest. Instead of a hokey moralistic tall-tale (a la Gump), Shawshank is a powerful parable attesting to the strength of the human spirit. It's cinematic storytelling in its finest form.

The script by Frank Darabont is sharp with melodic rhythms, just as his direction is confident and carefully executed-- with textured, transporting lighting and lensing by cinematographer Roger Deakins. The film is anchored by a strong, layered performance by Tim Robbins as the wrongfully-accused Andy Dufresne. Though the film itself is generally explicit in its intentions, Robbins smartly plays Dufresne with subtlety, suggesting that this is but a snapshot of his character and his character's life. Morgan Freeman is also strong and moving as co-prisoner and co-lead "Red," but he does not provide as much insight into his character beyond what the story details.

That Tom Hanks nabbed the Oscar for Best Actor this year while Tim Robbins failed to earn even a nomination is a farce. That Forrest Gump won Best Picture and Director over Shawshank (Darabont wasn't even nominated) is a tragedy. I'm not saying that Shawshank deserved any of these trophies (I need to see the rest of the competition), but this is just more proof that Gump got away with murder.

What's not so good?

I love Morgan Freeman's sublime voice work as much as the next guy, but the film uses the voice-over tactic too many times. I (shockingly) didn't mind it during narration, but letter after letter glimpsed over the shoulder, read aloud by the reader's or writer's voice-- surely there were other ways we could have learned the contents or significance of some of those letters.

Meanwhile, the film describes a lot about hope and about finding hope in the most dismal circumstances. But when Andy and Red actually addressed the term itself--"hope"--it seemed entirely superfluous. As a rule, Shawshank doesn't hesitate to spell out its intentions, but they should have left that one alone. We didn't need to directly hear that we were learning about "hope" in order to appreciate and understand its meaning.

Most egregious, and the film's biggest drawback, is the rampant and untenable homophobia. The "sisters," described as "queers," repeatedly gang-rape Andy before their front-man receives a savage beating. Later on, the warden threatens to put Andy down with the "sodomites." There is no distinction between the "sisters" or "sodomites" and "homosexuals" in general: in fact, the implication is that they are inherently the same. Still, it's not enough to detract from the experience as a whole.

Match-ups:

Forrest Gump. See above. Gump is a hokey fairy tale. Shawshank is a provocative parable. The victor is clear.

The Hurt Locker. Both films explore the idea of growing accustomed to, even thriving in dangerous spaces and then coming completely undone when confronted by the real world. Hurt Locker offers a sharper (like a knife), grittier look at this phenomenon, while Shawshank keeps its story bold and rich in persuasion.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Make the best with what you have, even if what you have is almost nothing at all. Diving Bell portrays this theme at its devastating extreme, while Shawshank doesn't quite convince us of the same unshakable stamina: even as Andy succeeds behind bars, the film concedes that his prior skills as a banker are pivotal.

Final Rating:



Absolutely, without a doubt, deserves to be considered a "classic."

Next Up: A Streetcar Named Desire. Before you start yelling at me for not going back nearly far enough to reach the actual classics... Some will be newer classics, some will be older classics... or the "classic" classics maybe?

Don't Forget Your Barf Bag

Should you see either of this weekend's major opening features, I suggest you heed my advice in the subject line.

She's Out of My League will have you reaching for it a fair number of times. The scrotal pruning and semen-slurping canine should do the trick on their own.

If Paul Greengrass' hyperactive shaky camera work doesn't make you seasick during Green Zone, his smug liberal self-congratulations surely will.

Read my reviews for both films at THE DAGGER:

She's Out of My League

Green Zone

This week: Hot Tub Time Machine and The Bounty Hunter. I'm not sure which will feature the grosser display of crusty middle-aged people soaking in their own sticky filth-- but I might have to pass on one or both to keep my stomach contents from spewing out of my mouth.

Oh, save me, Clash of the Titans! Or am I setting myself up for serious disappointment? Adam never learns...

Oscar Predictions - The Results!

Blue means I got it right. Red means I got it wrong. Full reactions/commentary after the individual categories.

Best Picture - CORRECT!

The Hurt Locker

Yessir! But why did anyone think otherwise after it won BAFTA, BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC, DGA, PGA, and WGA? Among so many other acknowledgments...

Best Director - CORRECT!

Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker

I am woman hear me roar? How about "I am amazing director, gimme that trophy." Geesh.

Lead Actor - CORRECT!

Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart

I want Colin Firth to be "overdue" for an Oscar too RIGHT NOW.

Lead Actress - WRONG!

Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

I really thought Gabby was gonna pull through. But Sandy was just so darn gracious and lovable right up to the very end. What an acceptance speech, too! Certainly one of the best ever uttered into Oscar's microphone. I do think that if voting had taken place one week later than it did, Gabby would have won. Sandra's external charms was starting to fade, and we began to look for the best performance-- not the best exemplification of a movie star.

Supporting Actor - CORRECT!

Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds

That's a bingo! But really, no one else stood a chance. Waltz was the most-rewarded single entity along the awards circuit this season. Even more than our next winner...

Supporting Actress - CORRECT!

Mo'Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

They was just making up for the Phat Girls snub, right?

Original Screenplay - WRONG!

Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino
The Hurt Locker, by Mark Boal

I seriously knew this was coming, but I reasoned my way out of it. This is evidence of both how much the Academy loved The Hurt Locker and how much Harvey Weinstein was wrong about a last-minute Basterds appreciation surge. But somehow I don't think even he believed the words that were coming out of his mouth.

Adapted Screenplay - WRONG!

Up in the Air
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Precious, by Geoffrey Fletcher

The biggest surprise of the evening bar-none. That surge of Precious buzz I thought would help propel Gabby to a win in the Lead Actress race-- this is where it went instead. So why did Reitman/Turner-sorta lose in the end? I've heard lots of theories: Reitman is too young, too smug, too sharp, or the film was too funny, too lighthearted, too sophisticated, or the barely-there Reittman-Turner feud threw a bitter wrench in the works, or Clooney wasn't out there promoting his movie enough, or the Academy wanted to recognize a black screenwriter for the first time in the same year they would give their first directing statue to a woman.

All generally fair theories. But here's what I think: marketing, marketing, marketing. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but where was the studio support for Up in the Air on any front? Not a single FYC ad in any trade magazine, a sorry excuse for a TV ad campaign, and... was there even a poster for this film beside the silhouetted teaser? Mo'Nique drew applause when she thanked the Academy for focusing on the product over the politics, but Mo' was fortunate enough to have a product that didn't need much promotion. 

The failure of Up in the Air in this category and in every other category this year proves that politics still matter a great deal. Had Paramount given this film the Ben Button campaign treatment they spooled out last year (during which they also all but emptied the coffers), it would have proven a serious contender for the top prize and, at the very least, a lock in this category to rival the locked-in wins of Bigelow, Mo'Nique, and Waltz.

Film Editing - CORRECT!

The Hurt Locker
Bob Murawski & Chris Innis

Doesn't this one usually coincide with Best Pic? The quick cuts, hand-held camerawork, and rapid pace surely helped seal the deal, too.

Cinematography - CORRECT!

Avatar
Mauro Fiore

I wasn't confident about this prediction, but I went with my gut that big, pretty images = big, shiny Oscar statue. I still need to figure out how anyone can judge the lensing and lighting of Avatar, given that so much of it-- nearly all of it-- is computer generated. Anyone care to enlighten me?

Art Direction - CORRECT!

Avatar
Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, & Kim Sinclair

The floating woodsprites (pictured above) singlehandedly won this one.

Costume Design - CORRECT!

The Young Victoria
Sandy Powell

And Oscar's obsession with royal porn continues in this category. Might Sandy Powell's acceptance speech persuade them to go more contemporary next year? Not when there are big, poofy dresses around!

Makeup - CORRECT!

Star Trek
Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, & Joel Harlow

The Spock ears sealed the deal-- and that this was the only place Star Trek fans had a chance to lend one to the film.

Sound Editing - WRONG!

Avatar
Christopher Boyes & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker,  Paul N.J. Ottosson

In my book, the biggest and most absurd snub of the night. Has a film ever featured more impressive sound effects than Avatar? This to me is proof that at least some part of the Academy became too swept up in the Hurt Locker chutzpah, supporting its Oscar success for reasons beyond its accomplishments as a piece of filmmaking. Not that this sort of blind devotion is foreign to the Oscar game, but it's such a shame in this case since The Hurt Locker was so strong on its filmmaking merits alone. It sullies the wins it did receive to see that there was more than cinematic appreciation involved in its christening.

Sound Mixing - CORRECT!

The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottosson & Ray Beckett

This one probably belonged to Avatar, too, but at least The Hurt Locker had a mix that was realistically competitive.

Visual Effects - CORRECT!

Avatar
Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, & Andy Jones

You mean It's Complicated didn't get this for all of those strange and scary creatures molded out of the same white (very white) clay?

Original Score - CORRECT!

Up
Michael Giacchino

Such a beautiful and emotional score. Hopefully I won't think of some joker doing the robot every time I hear it now (grrr, Shankman!!). As for Giacchino, he had me at hello.

Original Song - CORRECT!

"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Ryan Bingham & T-Bone Burnett

Though I still like driving with the windows down while dancing and blasting "Cinema Italiano."

Animated Film - CORRECT!

Up

How was this even a fair contest? We already knew the Academy liked Up more than any of the other nominated films because it was the only one that qualified for Best Picture. Or are voters instructed to approach this category from a more technical standpoint (they probably should be)?

Foreign Film - CORRECT!

The Secret in Their Eyes

Kudos to Kris Tapley at In Contention for nailing this one weeks in advance (last year, too, with Departures). Only members who attend special screening are allowed to vote in this category (I believe), so the winner is more likely to reflect the immediate reactions of an undefined segment of the voting population. Mr. Tapley has recognized that in Oscar's current era, the votes are likely to go to the film that has the most immediate and accessible emotional resonance and narrative power.

Documentary Film - CORRECT!

The Cove

Dolphins! How can you not love dolphins!?!!

Live Action Short - WRONG!

The Door

The New Tenants

These pesky short categories are always hard to pin down. Rule of thumb: as with the foreign film category, members must attend special screenings in order to vote in the short categories. Therefore, the (short) films that provide the biggest emotional and narrative punch are most likely to win. Subtlety is (so not) overrated!

Animated Short - CORRECT!

Logorama

The conceit was just too clever for anything else to overcome it.

Documentary Short - WRONG!

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Music by Prudence

A devastating human tale with a jolt of perseverance and positivity. over the purely devastating human tale with mind-bending political implications and no end in sight. Not so surprising in retrospect. But isn't that how it always works? I'm just thankful for the Kanye moment that came out of this one.

Final Score:

18/24 = 75% = C

I am perpetually average at this game. I would have had a solid 20/24 (with Bullock and Boal predicted to win) if I hadn't let external distractions and personal convictions cloud my judgment. I never learn, do I?

As for the show itself, you already know how I feel about the interpretive dancing. In a nutshell, they need to approach the Oscars as a celebration of film-- not a flashy stage show and a ratings grab. When the telecast worked, it worked because it was focusing on the films. I greatly appreciated the generous clips they showed for the supporting actor and actress categories. I loved the animated characters talking about their nominations (Louis the alligator from Princess and the Frog gave the second best speech of the night after Sandra Bullock). And how wonderful that they took the presentation of the short categories-- the ones that are typically rushed through without much thought (one year, the winners weren't even allowed on stage to accept their trophies!)-- to make them seem just as important as the rest of the evening. Quite the tribute!

But then, almost certainly because of time issues, they didn't afford the same recognition and import to a slew of other categories: cinematography, art direction, visual effects, and sound. Yes, they gave us a demonstration of sound editing vs. sound mixing using (of all films!) The Dark Knight, the one they snubbed for the top two prizes last year, but then there was no demonstration of these crafts in this year's nominated films. And even though Sandra Bullock gave a gently sarcastic explanation of a cinematographer's job, the completely uninformed might think their purpose isn't so different from that of a makeup artist.

What Oscar needs to do next year is, category by category, explain to us why the given component of the filmmaking craft is important, and then show us examples of this component at work by the nominated artists in the nominated films.

The highlight of the evening was undoubtedly the presentation of the lead acting categories to the nominated performers by close friends and cast-mates. It is infinitely touching, exciting, spellbinding to see the nominees so completely exposed and vulnerable for perhaps the first and only time during the entire awards season, as they are strapped in their chairs, listening to earnest and heartfelt salutes from their cohorts, during one of the biggest moments of their lives. They don't have to lift a finger anymore. The campaigning is over. The game face can come off. They can, at last, just sit back and absorb the significance of an unparalleled accomplishment. This is genuine drama of the highest order.

I enjoyed the duo of hosts, and they played extremely well off of each other. Their opening dialogue was sharp, swift, and polished, but more importantly, and unlike the opening song-and-dance sequin-and-feather extravaganza, it never overshadowed the films and film artists or forgot the reason why we're all here: to celebrate film.

Some other eye-rolling moments: the camera crew's black people scavenger hunt whenever Precious was mentioned or honored, the ABC announcer's insistence that The Blind Side had a shot at winning Best Picture, the ovary worship during Kathryn Bigelow's win (how about she got it because she can direct, end of story?), the consistently vain and humorless Sean Penn's slurry jab at himself and the Academy for snubbing his (ex?) wife Robin Wright-Penn two years running (him last year in his acceptance speech, them this year for Pippa Lee), and the inclusion of Twilight in the horror montage (the scariest part is Edward's sparkly skin).

But these are slight missteps aside the broader mishandling of the event. So, Oscar, let's try to focus on the films next year how about? Mmkays?

Bomb Threat This Weekend

A startling disappointment from the man behind this masterstroke.

I definitely preferred my other viewing experience this week. The universe seems strangely out of line.

Apparently, the budget on this one skyrocketed to somewhere between $100 and $150 million after extensive reworking and re-shoots. For the sake of its financiers, I hope that America is really jonesing to see Matt Damon kick some booty right now. But this has the potential to be an epic box office disaster.

Year-in-Advance Predictions: Oscar 2010

Somebody put a straight-jacket on this guy, right?? (Projected winners in red.)

BEST PICTURE

HEREAFTER
RABBIT HOLE

THE TREE OF LIFE

TRUE GRIT
THE WAY BACK
---
THE AMERICAN
BLACK SWAN
HOW DO YOU KNOW?
INCEPTION
THE SOCIAL NETWORK

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Hereafter
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole
Peter Weir, The Way Back

LEAD ACTOR
Jim Broadbent, Another Year
Johnny Depp, The Rum Diary

Robert Duvall, Get Low

Sean Penn, The Tree of Life
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

LEAD ACTRESS
Gemma Arterton, Tamara Drewe

Anette Bening, Mother and Child

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Rachel Weisz, The Whistleblower

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ewen Bremner, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
Josh Brolin, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Ed Harris, The Way Back

Bill Murray, Get Low
Justin Theroux, Your Highness

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life
Lyndsey Marshal, Hereafter
Naomi Watts, Mother and Child

Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
Hereafter

The Social Network

The Tree of Life
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The American

Rabbit Hole

True Grit
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
The Way Back

FILM EDITING
Hereafter
Inception
The Social Network

The Tree of Life

True Grit

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Hereafter
Inception

The Tree of Life

True Grit
The Way Back

ART DIRECTION
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
The King's Speech

The Tree of Life

True Grit

COSTUMES
Alice in Wonderland

The King's Speech

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
Robin Hood
The Way Back

MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland

Get Low

True Grit

SOUND EDITING

Inception

Robin Hood
Tron Legacy

True Grit

Toy Story 3

SOUND MIXING
Inception
The Tree of Life
True Grit
Tron Legacy
Toy Story 3

VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

Inception

Tron Legacy

ORIGINAL SCORE

Hereafter

Inception
Rabbit Hole
The Tree of Life
The Way Back

ANIMATED FILM
Legend of the Guardians

Tangled (Rapunzel)

Toy Story 3
---
Despicable Me
The Wild Bunch

And... 364-ish days to go! Bring it on!

So You Think You Can Oscar

Hey Shankman!!!!!

Just because you bust a glittery nut every time some group of slender twenty-somethings prances around on stage at your command doesn't mean that you should be allowed to hijack the Oscars with your rainbow-stained liquid dreams.

No need to dwell on the needless accomplishments of cinematographers or sound mixers or film editors.

Oh, no. More krumping, please!!!

Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

The Hurt Locker

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow
The Hurt Locker

Lead Actor

Jeff Bridges
Crazy Heart

Lead Actress

Gabourey Sidibe
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz
Inglourious Basterds

Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino

Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner

Film Editing

The Hurt Locker
Bob Murawski & Chris Innis

Cinematography

Avatar
Mauro Fiore

Art Direction

Avatar
Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, & Kim Sinclair

Costume Design

The Young Victoria
Sandy Powell

Makeup

Star Trek
Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, & Joel Harlow

Sound Editing

Avatar
Christopher Boyes & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle

Sound Mixing

The Hurt Locker
Paul N.J. Ottosson & Ray Beckett

Visual Effects

Avatar
Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, & Andy Jones

Original Score

Up
Michael Giacchino

Original Song

"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Ryan Bingham & T-Bone Burnett

Animated Film

Up

Foreign Film

The Secret in Their Eyes

Documentary Film

The Cove

Live Action Short

The Door

Animated Short

Logorama

Documentary Short

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

The Final Tally:

"Spreading the Wealth"

• The Hurt Locker - 4 wins (Picture, Director, Editing, Sound Mixing)
• Avatar - 4 wins (Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Editing, Visual Effects)
• Precious - 2 wins (Lead Actress, Supporting Actress)
• Inglourious Basterds - 2 wins (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)
• Crazy Heart - 2 wins (Lead Actor, Original Song)
• Up - 2 wins (Animated Film, Original Score)
• Up in the Air - 1 win (Adapted Screenplay)
• The Young Victoria - 1 win (Costume Design)
• Star Trek - 1 win (Makeup)

If I Had a Ballot...

• Best Picture - Avatar
• Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
• Lead Actor - Colin Firth, A Single Man
• Lead Actress - Carey Mulligan, An Education
• Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
• Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious
• Original Screenplay - A Serious Man, Joel & Ethan Coen
• Adapted Screenplay - In the Loop, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche
• Film Editing - The Hurt Locker
• Cinematography - The White Ribbon
• Art Direction - Avatar
• Costume Design - Bright Star
• Makeup - Star Trek
• Sound Editing - Avatar
• Sound Mixing - Avatar
• Visual Effects - Avatar
• Original Score - Up
• Original Song - "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
• Animated Film - The Princess and the Frog
• Foreign Film - A Prophet

(no comment on the remaining categories)

No "No Guts No Glory" this year. Just check out my actual prediction for Lead Actress. I'm telling you, I've got a feelin'. Gabby Sidibe is Adrien Brody: the breakout wonder sandwiched between a respected effort from a big Hollywood name (Sandy Bollocks/Jack Nicholson) and a spectacular portrayal from a seasoned contender in a less-than-spectacular movie (Meryl Streep/Daniel Day-Lewis). Don't buy it? How about that neither Bullock nor Streep has enough strength in performance or buzz to take it to the podium, while Carey Mulligan peaked far too early and Helen Mirren really isn't in it to win it. Meanwhile, everyone started to realize that Gabby was indeed a revelation just as the ballots went out.

Besides, I think we're well overdue for a shock at the Oscars. And I don't mean whatever hijinks Adam Shankman and his So You Think You Can Dance swarm have planned.

With all the potential nuttiness, could Lady Gaga please make an appearance? And/or perform each of the nominated original songs? And/or dress in ten different outfits inspired by each of the Best Picture nominees? Really, is that so much to ask?