Year-in-Advance Predictions 2009: The Results

I originally posted these predictions the day after the Oscars ceremony in 2009. Let's see how things panned out over the course of a year and change...

Best Picture
THE HUMAN FACTOR
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
SHUTTER ISLAND
THE TREE OF LIFE

0/5. The Lovely Bones didn't even come close to being nominated, let alone winning. Oh, letdown, letdown, letdown. Meanwhile, Nine came a little bit closer even if it took a harsher beating by the critical community. One title change--The Human Factor became Invictus--also turned out to be an under-performer. The remaining two films didn't make it to theaters in 2009 at all. Shutter Island is turning into a very unlikely Oscar contender (though with ten slots, you never know). Might The Tree of Life find new life on the Oscar circuit later this year? Considering the rocky production/development of the film, your guess is as good as mine. Then again, it's a Terence Malick film. Then again, it's a Terrence Malick film...

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, The Human Factor
John Hilcoat, The Road
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Martin Scorsese, Shutter Island

0/5. Struck out again. Clint had some traction early on, but Invictus didn't have legs. The Road was considered a disappointment (not by me!), and recognition eluded John Hilcoat. The Lovely Bones bombed, and Peter Jackson went down with the ship. And once again, directors from two films were not released last year. Scorsese might prove a weak contender-- though a contender nonetheless-- in the 2010 Oscar rally, while Malick is a big fat question mark.

Best Actor
Paul Bettany, Creation
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, The Human Factor
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

2/5. Morgan Freeman is a definite get, and I'm giving myself credit for Christopher Plummer, too (he was nominated for the predicted performance... so what if it's in the supporting category?). Otherwise, Paul Bettany drew hesitant praise for the poorly received Creation, Daniel Day-Lewis disappointed in Nine, and Viggo Mortensen got the raves and the write-ups but not the important pre-cursor nods. The biggest snub of the season, too, I think.

Best Actress
Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
Jennifer Connelly, Creation
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Rachel Weisz, Agora

1/5. Oh Meryl, how you never disappoint us! As for the others... Halle Berry is still holding out on her potential comeback without a release date for Frankie and Alice. Connelly got some hesitant praise for Creation (as did her hubby Paul Bettany), but maybe it's time she branched out from the role of long-suffering spouse. Amelia and Hilary Swank went down in flames. Rachel Weisz earned some accolades for Agora but nothing that indicates Oscar potential-- while the film itself was pushed into 2010.

Best Supporting Actor
Jackie Earle Haley, Shutter Island
Ben Kingsley, Shutter Island
Tobey Maguire, Brothers
Bill Nighy, 1939
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

1/5. Tucci was sole part of The Lovely Bones that managed to break into the Oscar mix-- if only because expectations were so astronomical from the word go. Haley and Kingsley, and Shutter Island, were pushed into early 2010 and gave strong performances. I wouldn't count Haley out of this year's Oscar race just yet. Tobey courted his way to a Golden Globe nod (in the leading category) but nothing more. Finally, 1939-- now Glorious 39--was deemed non-spectacular, Nighy included, and expectations are quite low for its eventual US national release.

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Mo'Nique, Push
Miranda Richardson, The Young Victoria
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

2/5. Cruz, like Tucci, had a big enough push early on to make the final cut, while Mo'Nique was a lock from the very first Sundance screening (why didn't I put her down for the win??). Patty Clarkson got raves, but Whatever Works was much too stale. Richardson was drowned out by the fancy sets and costumes of The Young Victoria. And Susan Sarandon left everyone mighty confused in The Lovely Bones.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Whatever Works
Guillermo Arriaga, The Burning Plain
Jane Campion, Bright Star
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Stephen Poliakoff, 1939

0/5. Just... no. Whatever Works was stuck in the 70s. For all its layers, The Burning Plain had little depth. Bright Star was too sophisticated for Oscar or just about everyone else (yeah, let's go with that). The Tree of Life... maybe next year? And Inglourious 1939 reportedly isn't anything special.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, & Philippa Boyens, The Lovely Bones
Laeta Kalogridis, Shutter Island
Damien Paul, Push
Anthony Peckham, The Human Factor
Joe Penhall, The Road

1/5. Aww, how cute! I used Geoffrey Fletcher's real name! Still a bit stunned that he won this one. The others? Lovely Bones blah blah fail fail. Shutter Island blah blah new year not good enough. The Invictus Factor blah blah underwhelmed. The Road blah blah snubbed snubbed.

Animated Film
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog
Up

3/3 (3/5). Boy did I ever nail this one! Because let's be honest: were there only three nominees this year, they would have been these three, right? Give or take a Fantastic Fox. But I'm surely not psychic enough to have seen the category expansion.

Film Editing
Green Zone
The Human Factor
Nine
Shutter Island
The Tree of Life

0/5. Green Zone: new year, new fail (despite the denial of the liberal die-hards). Invictus: not so close, not so cigar. Nine: only the critical slaying it received would have been able to stop it-- and it did. Shutter Island: new year, still in contention? Tree of Life?? I sure hope so!

Cinematography
Amelia
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Road
Shutter Island

0/5. Nine came oh-so-close. Amelia and Bones went nyeer-splat. The Road was ignored (and not all that loved). Shutter Island could still be in it this year... maybe... probably not.

Art Direction
Agora
Amelia
Nine
The Road
The Young Victoria

2/5. Same stories as before for the ones that didn't make it. Nine earned a puzzling nod, and The Young Victoria was pretty much preordained, no?

Costume Design
Agora
Amelia
Creation
Nine
The Young Victoria

2/5. See category above.

Make-up
Nine
The Road
The Wolf Man

0/3. Not so much makeup in Nine (Penny Cruz's role-playing seductress not included). Snubbub for The Road. The Wolf Man bumped into the next year.

Sound Editing
Avatar
Green Zone
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Watchmen

2/5. How did Avatar lose this one, seriously? Transformers probably came close, but campaigned harder for a sound mixing nod. No bananas for the Watchmen, and a new year for the Green Zone.

Sound Mixing
Amelia
Avatar
Green Zone
Nine
Watchmen

1/5. Avatar lost this one too? Really? Really? Amelia = kaboom. Green Zone = pttttthhhh. Nine = yaawwwn. Watchmen = hmph.

Original Score
Avatar
The Lovely Bones
The Road
Shutter Island
The Tree of Life

1/5. New category, same stories for the unfulfilled prophecies.

Visual Effects
Avatar
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Watchmen

1/3. I picked the winner! Go me? The others didn't have the overall chops required to make the cut.

So how did I do?

I correctly guessed 19 nominations! Out of 84 contenders... 91 if you count the expanded Best Picture and Animated Feature categories. So that's a 23%! Or a 21% if you count the expanded categories. How's that for blind luck?