Oscar Nomination Predictions

All predictions are listed in order of nomination likelihood...

BEST PICTURE

Alternate 1: (500) Days of Summer
Alternate 2: Julie & Julia

• 9/10. Invictus is out. The Blind Side (*angry glare*) is in.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alternate: Michael Haneke, The White Ribbon

• 5/5. Too easy.

LEAD ACTOR

Alternate: Viggo Mortensen, The Road

• 5/5. Too easy.

LEAD ACTRESS

Alternate: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

• 5/5. Too easy.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alternate: Matt Damon, Invictus

• 4/5 + alt. Poor Christian McKay.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alternate: Samantha Morton, The Messenger

• 3/5. Whoa. Penelope Cruz (over Marion Cotillard) in Nine?? And Gyllenhaal piggybacks her way to a nomination for Crazy Heart after all. Meanwhile, nothing for Ms. Moore and Ms. Laurent.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Alternate: Avatar

• 4/5. 500 Days shut out. But The Messenger makes the cut. A good choice in retrospect.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Alternate: Fantastic Mr. Fox

• 4/5. In the Loop quite deservedly squeaks in over Crazy Heart. Darn it if I didn't mean to have it as my alternate pick too.

ANIMATED FILM

Alternate: 9

• 4/5. What's The Secret of Kells?? (which did pick up an Annie nod) And no Meatballs. Fair enough.

DOCUMENTARY FILM

Alternate: Burma VJ

• 2/5 + alt. Ouch. Take out the bottom three, add in Burma, and also The Most Dangerous Man in America and Which Way Home.

FOREIGN FILM

Alternate: The Secret in their Eyes

3/5 + alt. Ajami is in. Winter in Wartime and Samson & Delilah are out.

FILM EDITING

Alternate: Precious

• 4/5 + alt. The clunky-sleek nips and tucks of Up in the Air are ignored.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Alternate: The Road

• 4/5. Nothing for Nine. A well-deserved mention for the gorgeously filmed Harry Potter.

ART DIRECTION

Alternate: The Lovely Bones

• 2/5. Ouchies. Avatar and Nine make the cut, along with The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Sherlock Holmes, and The Young Victoria.

COSTUMES

Alternate: Avatar

• 3/5. Nothing for the Basterds or Holmes. With mentions to Doctor Parnassus and Coco before Chanel.

MAKEUP

Alternate: The Road

• 1/3. What?? No District 9?? Madness. Il Divo and The Young Victoria join Star Trek.

SOUND MIXING

Alternate: Up

• 4/5. No District 9 (again... really?!). Yes Transformers.

SOUND EDITING

Alternate: Up

• 3/5 + alt. Take out the bottom two. Add in the Basterds and Up.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Alternate: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

• 3/3. Ka-ching!

ORIGINAL SCORE

Alternate: Coco Before Chanel

• 4/5. The Informant! gets a big snub. The Hurt Locker (uhh... really?) gets a big mention.

ORIGINAL SONG

* * * * *

Alternate: Avatar - "I See You"

• 3/5. "Take it All" over "Cinema Italiano" from Nine. "Loin de Paname" from Paris 36 (is that a real movie??) over "Come Home" from Everybody's Fine.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

"Kavi"
"Miracle Fish"
"The Response"
"The Door"
"Sidney Turtlebaum"

Alternate: "Short Term 12"

• 3/5. With "Instead of Abracadabra" and "The New Tenants".

ANIMATED SHORT

"Partly Cloudy"
"The Cat Piano"
"A Matter of Loaf and Death"
"The Lady and the Reaper"
"Runaway"

Alternate: "The Kinematograph"

• 2/5. Plus "French Roast", "Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty", and "Logorama".

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

"Tell Them Anything You Want: A Portrait of Maurice Sendak"
"The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant"
"Lt. Watada"
"China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
"The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner"

Alternate: "Music by Prudence"

• 3/5 + alt. With "Province" and "Rabbit à la Berlin"